Will The Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty Survive The Upcoming Elections?

In a story on the recent electoral debate in Egypt, the conadidates expressed a vow to review Camp David - In first-ever presidential debate in the Arab world, Abol Fotouh calls Israel an enemy, Amr Moussa calls it an adversary; both promise review of Israel peace treaty.

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Gallup Poll of Egyptians on the: Peace Treaty with Israel

Gallup poll of Egyptians: Peace treaty with Israel better for Egypt than close Egyptian relations with US
Dr. Aaron Lerner - IMRA March 23, 2012

While 48% of Egyptians think the current peace treaty with Israel is a good thing for the country only 28% think that close relations with the U.S. are a good thing for Egypt

[Source:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/153401/Egyptians-Sour-Eye-Closer-Ties-Turkey-Iran.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=plaintextlink&utm_term=Egypt
- hat tip=IMRA]

Gallup poll: face-to-face interviews with 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, and conducted in Jan. 31-Feb 7, 2012, in Egypt. Statistical error +/-3.4
percentage points.

The margin of error reflects the influence of data weighting. Earlier surveys are based on face-to-face interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 15 and older, in Egypt. For results based on the total sample of national adults in these surveys, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error ranges from ±3.1 to ±3.5 percentage
points.

Are close relations with the U.S. a good thing or bad thing for Egypt?
Good 28% Bad 56%

Are close relations with Turkey a good thing or bad thing for Egypt?
Good 60% Bad 19%

Are close relations with Iran a good thing or bad thing for Egypt?
Good 41% Bad 38%

Do you approve of disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of the U.S.?
Approve 19% Disapprove 65%

Do you approve of disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of Turkey?
Approve 37% Disapprove 44%

Do you approve of disapprove of the job performance of the leadership of Iran?
Approve 21% Disapprove 58%

Do you think the current peace treaty with Israel is a good thing or a bad thing for the country?
Good 48% Bad 42%

[The poll found that supporters of Islamist parties are no more likely than others to oppose the peace treaty with Israel.]

In your opinion, will Egypt’s status in the world improve, decline, or stay the same as a result of President Mubarak’s resignation?
Improve 79% Decline 12%

Former Begin Cabinet Secretary on Future of Egypt-Israerl Peace Treaty

Current Minister for Intelligence Agencies Dan Meridor, a former cabinet secretary during Prime Minister Menachyem Begin's second government, has indicated that if Egypt changes the peace treaty, Israel may rule out future deals.

From the story:-

If Cairo unilaterally decides to alter the peace treaty with Jerusalem, Israel will ask why sign agreements with other neighbors if these accords are not kept, Intelligence Agencies Minister Dan Meridor said Monday.

Meridor, speaking at a press conference organized by The Israel Project, said that "objectively" there is no reason for either Israel or Egypt to change the peace agreement that has served both sides for more than 30 years.

"If people are rational and act for the good of their country, both Israel and Egypt should keep the agreement," Meridor said. Meridor added that Israel has had no contact with Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, the party that won the recent parliamentary elections there.

...Meridor bemoaned the Palestinian Authority's decision to sign a unity agreement with Hamas in Doha. He called on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to demonstrate the "courage" to accept a demilitarized Palestinian state, and that if he did not, it would be "another missed
opportunity that will be bad for us, but worse for them."

Meridor repeated his position, which is not the government's policy, that Israel should "harmonize" its settlement policy with the diplomatic process, meaning that it should build in the large settlement blocs that it hopes to retain in any future agreement, but not build everywhere else in Judea and
Samaria.

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Bolstering the Peace Process With Israel by Egypt

From a newspaper report:

Mubarak's defense lawyer: My client didn't violate the law in Israel gas deal

Egypt Independent Sat, 21/01/2012

Former president Hosni Mubarak didn’t do anything illegal in the deal to export natural gas to Israel, Mubarak’s lawyer, Farid al-Deeb, argued on Saturday, before Cairo Criminal Court adjourned the trial to Sunday. On Saturday, it heard Mubarak’s defense team, led by Deeb.

The prosecution had accused Mubarak of exporting gas to Israel at sub-standard rates and of allocating responsibility for the deal to businessman Hussein Salem, thereby squandering public money.

Deeb added that the Supreme State Security Court completed investigations into the case and referred former Petroleum Minister Sameh Fahmy, Salem and
five others for trial. The investigations did not mention any accusations against Mubarak, he said.

Still, the prosecution later added Mubarak to the case.

He said that former vice president Omar Suleiman said in his testimony that then Mubarak learned of the low price of the gas, he asked him to meet with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to renegotiate the contract or cancel the deal.

According to Deeb, Suleiman said that Israel agreed to amend the contract such that the new price of one million thermal units would be US$ 3.5 instead of US$ 1.5.

He added that it was agreed that the price would be reviewed every three years instead of every 15 years. According to Deeb, Suleiman said that it was Mubarak who asked for amending the contract when he learned of the prices. Mubarak also threatened to halt exports if prices weren’t raised, Deeb said.

The lawyer said that Suleiman, former head of Egyptian intelligence, said that the intelligence apparatus led negotiations over the gas deal and
sought to create common interests with Israel, bolster the peace process and improve Egypt's chances of influencing Israel. He also said the deal
involved other components related to national security.

Deeb added that Egypt 's gas provided Israel with 40 percent of its electricity needs, which he said proves that the deal was intended to create leverage over Israel.

Deeb also said that the Supreme Administrative Court said in its ruling on the gas deal that the decision to export gas to Israel was a sovereign decision, and that Mubarak’s only role was to approve the deal.

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Amr Moussa: Egyptian – Israeli peace treaty is in place

In a long interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, former Arab League Secretary-General and Egyptian presidential hopeful Amr Moussa spoke on a number of topics, including the political situation.

In summary:

Amr Moussa: Do not think Egyptian – Israeli peace treaty will be cancelled under any circumstances, must decide if selling gas to Israel [note: the supply of gas is the result of a signed contract - YM]

Egyptian – Israeli peace treaty is in place, and I do not think there are any circumstances that will lead to its cancellation. I do not think this will happen, and I do not think it would be wise for this treaty to be cancelled. The treaty will continue so long as each party respects it…as for the security situation in the Sinai Peninsula and the presence of Egyptian forces there, I believe that the security articles of the treaty should be reviewed in this regard. This is something that can be discussed within a political framework.

Excerpt:

Let me tell you that the Middle East region needs a new
system. The Arab world and the Middle East are in the process of change, and so the previous way of doings things is no longer good enough. Firstly, we must put forward a new political, economic, and security system in the region. Secondly, and with regards to Egypt, the Arab – Israeli conflict, and the Palestinian Cause, Egypt must and will continue to be part of the Arab Initiative [for peace]. Egypt’s policy on the Arab – Israeli conflict, and its resolution, must be based on the Arab Initiative. As for Egyptian – Israeli relations, the Egyptian – Israeli peace treaty is in place, and I do not think there are any circumstances that will lead to its cancellation. I do not think this will happen, and I do not think it would be wise for this treaty to be cancelled. The treaty will continue so long as each party respects it…as for the security situation in the Sinai Peninsula and the presence of Egyptian forces there, I believe that the security articles of the treaty should be reviewed in this regard. This is something that can be discussed within a political framework. As for the Palestinian Cause, Egypt must not turn its back on this, for this is part of Egypt’s national security. As Egyptians, we are the largest neighbor to Palestine and Israel, and so we must work to control the situation in this region. This is via three points: solving the Arab – Israeli conflict in a just and respectable manner, solving the Palestinian Cause through the establishment of a genuine Palestinian state, and by establishment an atmosphere where everybody feels
safe, most prominently through nuclear non-proliferation

[Asharq Al-Awsat] What about the issue of Egypt’s sale of natural gas to Israel? Will this deal remain unchanged?

[Moussa] There are two issues that must be decided. Firstly, whether we will sell natural gas to Israel or not, and secondly, how such sales will take place. There is a lot of corruption in the gas deals that occurred in the past. This corruption must be immediately addressed. As for the issue of
whether we will continue such sales, the [Egyptian] political apparatus must look into this and consider how it will manage Egypt’s gas and oil policies, environmental policies, etc.

(Hat tip: IMRA)

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