Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Poll on Egypt-Israel Peace After Regime Chabge in Egypt

From a poll on public opinion on the continuation of the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty:

The Peace Index: February 2011

Date Published: 28/02/2011
Survey dates: 20/02/2011 - 21/02/2011

Summary of the Findings

What will happen in Egypt? The Jewish public is pessimistic about future developments in Egypt. A clear majority (70%) thinks the chances that a democratic regime will soon emerge in Egypt are low. As for the chances of an Iran-type, radical Islamic regime taking shape, opinions are divided: 49% see the chances of this as high, while 41% view them as low. In the Arab public, we see the reverse picture: a majority (74%) rates the chances of a democratic regime in Egypt as high, with only a minority (28%) seeing a radical Islamic regime as likely.

What will happen to the peace treaty with Egypt? Forty-seven percent of Jewish respondents think that the revolution will affect the peace treaty with Egypt negatively—that is, peace will be undermined or collapse—whereas 8% think the impact will be positive and the cold peace will turn warm. Nineteen percent say the revolution won’t affect relations with Israel, and the rest (27%) do not know. On this issue, the Arab public is pessimistic as well: 40% foresee a worsening of relations, 34% do not expect a change, and only 19% anticipate that the peace will “warm up” under the impact of the revolution. (The remaining 8% do not know.)

Will Hamas gain or lose? In the same spirit, half of the Jewish public holds the opinion that the revolution will strengthen the status of Hamas, while only 15% expect its status to weaken. Eighteen percent think no change will occur, and about the same rate do not know. Among the Arab respondents, the highest rate (43%) think Hamas’s status will remain as it was, but 39% expect it to strengthen and only 4% see it weakening. The rest have no clear opinion.

Is silence golden? A wide consensus of the Jewish public (85%) views Israel’s policy of silence during the revolt in Egypt as having been justified. However, over half (53%) think that the United States was wrong to support the anti-Mubarak demonstrators. In the Arab public, too, the majority (69%) thinks Israel’s policy of silence was the right one. Here, though, 70% say America was right to back the demonstrators.

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